Disequilibrium – 6 Toros 6 http://6toros6.com/ Fri, 11 Jun 2021 18:27:30 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.7.2 https://6toros6.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cropped-icon-32x32.png Disequilibrium – 6 Toros 6 http://6toros6.com/ 32 32 Experts suggest the # 1 way to replenish housing stock https://6toros6.com/experts-suggest-the-1-way-to-replenish-housing-stock/ https://6toros6.com/experts-suggest-the-1-way-to-replenish-housing-stock/#respond Fri, 11 Jun 2021 18:09:34 +0000 https://6toros6.com/experts-suggest-the-1-way-to-replenish-housing-stock/

The housing shortage, especially affordable housing, is on many minds, this is a major question for housing policy makers, and is at the center of countless recent studies.

One of these surveys is courtesy of Zillow Research, which published, “Zoning changes the most efficient way to increase housing supply, ”For which the authors took into account the opinion of a panel of more than a hundred experts in the field and economists.

Zillow’s panel expects house prices to continue rising and construction to slow in the coming years, with high costs being the main obstacle. They deduced that relaxing zoning rules to allow for more and / or more efficient new home construction would be the most effective way to increase supply.

On average, the expert panel told Zillow it expects new housing starts to end the year 2.5% below December 2020 levels and drop 2%. additional by the end of 2022.

Zillow researchers address the fact that builders’ confidence has always remained at very high levels since last summer, which makes the prediction a bit inconsistent, however, Zillow points out, “optimism alone may not be enough to make a significant dent in the massive shortfall in construction since the Great Recession. “

Less restrictive zoning was the most effective strategy to help increase inventory; this is the n ° 1 route chosen by 56% of respondents.

Zillow explained this:

Zillow’s previous research has even found a modest amount of overzoning in large metropolitan areas could add 3.3 million homes to the U.S. housing stock, creating room for more than half of missing households since the Great Recession — one of the main reasons for today’s frenzied housing demand. A majority (57%) of owners previously interviewed by Zillow previously said they believed that they and others should be able to add additional homes on their property, and 30% said they would be willing to invest money to create homes on their own property if it was allowed. “

Other recommendations for increasing housing supply included relaxing the land subdivision process, relaxing local review regulations for projects of a certain size, accelerating the adoption of new construction technologies and increased training to strengthen the construction workforce.

The researchers add that, of course, new construction isn’t the only way to increase inventory.

A similar panel, when surveyed in the first quarter of 2021, said they expect the housing stock to start growing again in 2021, with an increase in the number of existing homes listed being the most likely path to inventory growth.

Previous Zillow is looking for has shown that the widespread distribution of coronavirus vaccines could make some 14 million households comfortable moving that don’t necessarily feel that way now.

Terry Loebs, the founder of Pulsenomics, exposes the many situations that come together to create the current environment.

“A profound shift in housing preferences, the adoption of remote employment, low mortgage rates and the economic recovery continue to fuel demand in the single-family home market and push up prices,” Loebs said. “Strict zoning regulations, an acute labor shortage and record material costs are hampering new construction, worsening the imbalance and raising expectations that above-normal house price growth rates will persist in the near future. – beyond the short term. “

The full Zillow Research article is available at Zillow.com/research.

]]>
https://6toros6.com/experts-suggest-the-1-way-to-replenish-housing-stock/feed/ 0
Experts: zoning changes are the most effective way to increase housing supply https://6toros6.com/experts-zoning-changes-are-the-most-effective-way-to-increase-housing-supply/ https://6toros6.com/experts-zoning-changes-are-the-most-effective-way-to-increase-housing-supply/#respond Thu, 10 Jun 2021 09:11:15 +0000 https://6toros6.com/experts-zoning-changes-are-the-most-effective-way-to-increase-housing-supply/

*Expectations for future home price growth among a panel of more than 100 experts and economists are the most optimistic ever in a quarterly survey dating back to 2010.

*The panel expects new construction to slow in the coming years, with high costs as the main obstacle. In the last quarter, the same panel predicted that total inventory would increase later this year thanks mainly to more existing homes coming up for sale.

*According to the panelists, a relaxation of the zoning rules would be the most productive to increase the supply of new housing.

……………… ..

According to the latest Zillow survey of home price expectations, relaxing zoning rules to allow more and / or more efficient new home construction would be the most effective way to increase supply in a market. housing currently near historic lows in inventories.[1] On the current trajectory, these experts predict that new construction growth will slow down and house prices will rise, leading to a decrease in the number of today’s 30-something homeowners.

High costs are expected to slow the dynamics of new construction, a blow to homebuyers already facing a fiercely competitive market with relatively few homes available relative to the number of interested buyers. On average, the panel expects new housing starts to end the year 2.5% below December 2020 levels and decline a further 2% by the end of 2022. Panelists have cited high costs of labor, materials and land as the main obstacles to the home. builders.[2] The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey is a quarterly survey of more than 100 real estate experts and economists nationwide, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics.

The results are somewhat surprising given the confidence of the builders which has always remained very high levels since last summer, although it has declined somewhat from highs reached towards the end of 2020. Builders appear to be sensing a golden opportunity to help address the shortage of available housing, especially as demand appears to be on the rise. point to remain high for years to come. But this optimism alone may not be enough to make a significant dent in the massive deficit in construction since the Great Recession.

When asked what could be done to increase housing supply, easing zoning rules was the top choice – 56% of panelists chose it as one of the top three to help increase the supply of housing, and it has been ranked as the single most effective strategy. Zillow’s previous research has even found a modest amount of overzoning in major metropolitan areas could add 3.3 million homes to the U.S. housing stock, creating room for more than half of missing households since the Great Recession – one of the main reasons for today’s frenzied housing demand. A majority (57%) of owners previously interviewed by Zillow previously said they believed that they and others should be able to add additional housing on their property, and 30% said they would be willing to invest money to create housing on their own property, if it was allowed.

Other recommendations from the panelists for increasing the housing supply included relaxing the land subdivision process, relaxing local review regulations for projects of a certain size, speeding up the process of land subdivision. adoption of new construction technologies and increased training to strengthen the construction workforce.

Of course, new construction isn’t the only route to more inventory – a majority of the same panel, when surveyed in the first quarter of 2021, said they expect home inventories to start rising again this year, with an increase in the number of existing homes listed as the most likely catalyst for inventory growth. Previous Zillow is looking for has shown that the widespread distribution of coronavirus vaccines could make some 14 million households comfortable moving that don’t necessarily feel that way now.

With housing demand shows no signs of slowing down From a boom fueled by a pandemic in the second half of 2020, the panel of experts again adjusted their expectations for house price growth upwards. The panel’s average home value growth forecast for 2021 is 8.7% – the highest for a year since the start of the quarterly survey in 2010. That’s up from 6.2% the last quarter and more than double the expectations of the survey of the fourth quarter of 2020 (4.2%). Home value growth is expected to slow to 5.1% in 2022, according to the panel – still strong growth from a historic average of around 4%.

“A profound shift in housing preferences, the adoption of remote employment, low mortgage rates and the economic recovery continue to fuel demand in the market for single-family homes and push up prices,” said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics. “Strict zoning regulations, an acute labor shortage and record material costs are hampering new construction, worsening the imbalance and raising expectations that above-normal house price growth rates will persist in the future. – beyond the short term. ”

The panelists were also asked about their expectations regarding the evolution of mortgage rates and the prospects for homeownership for millennials in the coming years. Average rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage are currently around 3%, and panelists said they expected a slight increase to 3.45% by the end of the year , to continue at 3.99% at the end of 2022. That would add $ 55 to a monthly payment on a typical home at the end of this year and $ 124 at the end of 2022.[3] Still, this would represent a godsend historically. Average rates were close to 5% in 2018, and they started the 2000s above 8%.

Largely due to the affordability concerns of rising house prices, the panel on average expects the number of people aged 35 to 44 to decline slightly over the next five years, when this group will be dominated by millennials. The majority (54%) of experts who expect homeownership to decline in this age group by 2026 cited worsening affordability – via higher mortgage rates and / or real estate prices – as the main cause.

Of the more optimistic panelists who anticipate more homeowners in this age group in the coming years, most (61%) said an increased preference for property over rent would be the main factor. Perhaps this could be the result of how the pandemic and the increase in remote working options have changed what many say they want and need in a home.

[1] This edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey interviewed 109 experts between May 11, 2021 and May 25, 2021. The survey was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. Zillow’s Home Price Expectations Survey and related material are available through Zillow and Pulsenomics.

[2] The verbatim response options most often cited by panelists as headwinds were “high labor costs / shortage of skilled construction labor”, “high / volatile material costs ”And“ high land costs / lack of developable plots in desirable areas ”.

[3] Assuming a 20% down payment on a home purchased for $ 280,370, the typical home value in April according to the Zillow Home Value Index.

]]>
https://6toros6.com/experts-zoning-changes-are-the-most-effective-way-to-increase-housing-supply/feed/ 0
Head pressure and dizziness: causes, treatment and more https://6toros6.com/head-pressure-and-dizziness-causes-treatment-and-more/ https://6toros6.com/head-pressure-and-dizziness-causes-treatment-and-more/#respond Wed, 09 Jun 2021 08:38:40 +0000 https://6toros6.com/head-pressure-and-dizziness-causes-treatment-and-more/

Some people feel a sensation of pressure in the head or behind the eyes. The head may pound or feel very full. It can get worse if a person changes position. Feelings of pressure in the head and dizziness can occur together. Head pressure can be a type of headache or it can occur alongside a headache.

Head pressure and dizziness may often occur because of the migraine. Any chronic or very severe and sudden symptoms can signal a serious underlying condition.

It is important to note that there is four types dizziness :

  • Fear of heights: A person has the sensation of moving when they are still or have the impression of turning.
  • Imbalance: A person feels wobbly or out of balance.
  • Presyncope: A person has the impression of passing out.
  • Dizziness: A person feels vague, as if they are losing their connection with their surroundings.

A person might be able to identify the type of vertigo they are experiencing, which might help a doctor accurately diagnose the cause.

This article will list some possible causes of head pressure and dizziness occurring together. It will also cover some treatment options for everyone and explain when a person should contact a doctor.

However, these are not the only possible causes of head pressure and dizziness. A person should contact a doctor to receive a full examination and the correct diagnosis.

Seasonal allergies, which doctors sometimes call allergic rhinitis, can cause feelings of pressure in the head and sinuses.

Some people also have symptoms such as sneezing, itchy eyes, a sore throat, and generally feeling unwell. Any of these symptoms can cause dizziness, especially if a person feels very congested or develops sinusitis.

How to treat allergies

There are a number of treatments that can help relieve the symptoms of allergies. The first is to avoid allergens by staying indoors more often during allergy season or by using an air filter. Some people also find that wearing masks helps relieve allergy symptoms.

Taking allergy medication can also relieve symptoms. Immunotherapy, which exposes a person to very small amounts of the allergen to keep their body from overreacting, can also be helpful. People interested in a permanent allergy solution can ask a doctor for immunotherapy in the form of allergy shots.

Learn more about allergy medications here.

A headache that results from sinusitis can cause feelings of pressure in the head, especially near the front of the face and under the eyes. This happens because fluid collects in the sinuses, usually due to infection.

Some people also get dizzy, feel sick, or have lower energy levels.

How to treat sinusitis

Applying heating pads or hot compresses to the face can help. Some people may also find relief by taking allergy medications or over-the-counter pain relievers.

Antibiotics can process some sinus infections, but only if they are caused by bacteria. They cannot help with viral infections.

Some people can develop a chronic form of sinusitis which may require consultation with a specialist.

Learn more about home remedies for sinus pressure relief here.

Ear infections usually affect the middle ear, which is just beyond the eardrum. These infections are common in children. Sometimes an ear infection follows another illness, such as a sinus infection or the flu.

The middle ear becomes fluid to keep itself clean. This fluid should flow into the throat through an opening. However, if the throat swells, the opening swells. As a result, fluid builds up, which can be painful. It can then become infected.

Symptoms can come on suddenly and most people develop a fever. A person may also have pressure in the head, ringing in the ears, or dizziness.

How to treat an ear infection

Lying down with the aching ear facing up, with a heating pad on top, can help relieve the pain of an ear infection. This is because gravity helps the fluid from the ear to flow down the throat. Plus, the warmth of the cushion helps keep the drainage site open.

Taking over-the-counter pain relievers can also help relieve symptoms.

Antibiotics can help treat middle ear infections, especially in young children and people with weakened immune systems. However, draining the ear while lying on the correct side will help prevent the disease from recurring and prevent the eardrum from rupturing, which could occur due to a build-up of fluid.

Learn more about how to treat ear infections here.

Migraine is a neurological type headaches that occur when changes in the brain cause headaches and other unusual sensations.

Some people experience migraine as pressure to the head along with other neurological symptoms, such as:

  • dizziness
  • light sensitivity
  • vomiting
  • hearing unusual sounds
  • see unusual lights

How to treat a migraine

Taking pain relievers can help relieve migraines, but people with chronic migraines should see a doctor. They may prescribe medications to prevent migraines and rule out other conditions.

The doctor may also recommend keeping a headache diary to help identify potential triggers.

Find out about migraine triggers and how to avoid them here.

A tension headache when arrives muscle tension radiates to the head. A person may also experience pain in the shoulder or neck.

Tension headaches tend to come on slowly, get worse over time and cause pain in the head and sometimes a feeling of pressure. Very severe tension headaches can also make a person feel dizzy.

How to treat a tension headache

Some people may find relief from tension headaches by applying hot or cold compresses to the neck or head, or by taking over-the-counter headache medications.

Chronic tension headaches occur when a person suffers from a tension headache for 15 or more days per month for at least 3 months. They sometimes occur when a person has underlying muscle problems, sits at a computer all day, or suffers from chronic stress. A doctor may be able to identify strategies to deal with these problems.

Check out 19 natural headache remedies here.

High blood pressure, especially a sudden change in blood pressure, can cause pain and pressure in the head, as well as dizziness.

Any type of pain, including that associated with headaches, can also cause high blood pressure. However, in this case, relieve the headache may not lead to lower blood pressure.

How to treat high blood pressure

It’s important to talk to a doctor about high blood pressure, as changes in behavior and taking medications, such as beta blockers, can help.

A person may find that managing stress or eating less salt can also help lower their blood pressure.

A home blood pressure reading with a systolic number (top) greater than 180 or a diastolic number (bottom) greater than 120 justifies a call to 911 or a trip to the emergency room.

Find out 15 ways to naturally lower blood pressure here.

When a person has intracranial hypertension, it means that there is a higher pressure of the fluid which cushions the brain. This can happen for a number of reasons, including:

  • a serious head injury
  • a cerebral vascular accident
  • an infection or growth in the brain, including a brain tumor

A person may experience a chronic throbbing headache or neurological symptoms such as vision problems or difficulty concentrating. If this is the case, a person should contact a doctor, as these symptoms can be life threatening.

Some people develop intracranial hypertension for no clear reason. Doctors call it idiopathic intracranial hypertension (HIH). Making certain lifestyle changes, like losing weight, can help with IIH.

Learn more about increasing intracranial pressure here.

A person should contact a doctor if they:

  • have an ear infection or ear pain that gets worse or does not improve within a few days
  • have a headache that lasts for more than a day or have frequent headaches
  • have severe allergies
  • think they may have migraines
  • have headaches that affect their mental health or daily functioning

A person should go to the emergency room if they have any of the following problems:

  • a sudden, unexplained, very severe headache that makes it impossible to do further activity, as well as other symptoms, such as nausea or tingling
  • stroke symptoms, such as numbness on one side of the body or a droopy face
  • loss of consciousness, feeling very well, or worrying that their headache is an emergency

Some other symptoms that a person may notice with headaches and dizziness include:

  • nausea
  • tired
  • a fever
  • congestion or pain in the face
  • sneeze
  • panic or anxiety

The following symptoms can also occur, but they are more likely to signal an emergency:

  • numbness on one side of the body
  • confusion
  • blurry vision
  • arterial hypertension

When a headache or dizziness lasts a long time, it is more likely that a person has a chronic or serious illness, such as a migraine, pressure to the head from a tumor or infection, or cerebral lesion – brain-damage.

A person should avoid self-diagnosis and contact a doctor if concerned.

Learn more about persistent headaches here.

Some people develop a headache or dizziness after eating. This doesn’t necessarily mean the food caused the symptoms, so it’s important to look at other factors.

Sometimes, however, food poisoning, food sensitivities, and even overeating can cause dizziness and headaches, as well as stomach pain.

A person can also develop a headache after eating sugar.

Learn more about sugar-related headaches here.

Headaches can be very painful, but they are usually harmless. In most cases, a person can manage the symptoms at home.

However, when the headache is severe or lasts for a long time, it is important to contact a doctor. Receiving early treatment can improve the outlook, even for very serious illnesses.

A person should avoid self-diagnosis and instead seek an accurate diagnosis and appropriate treatment for symptoms of any severity affecting them.

]]> https://6toros6.com/head-pressure-and-dizziness-causes-treatment-and-more/feed/ 0 Upcoming requests and 2025 growth analysis – Le Courrier https://6toros6.com/upcoming-requests-and-2025-growth-analysis-le-courrier/ https://6toros6.com/upcoming-requests-and-2025-growth-analysis-le-courrier/#respond Tue, 08 Jun 2021 01:30:28 +0000 https://6toros6.com/upcoming-requests-and-2025-growth-analysis-le-courrier/

A recent report published by Fact.MR points to an imbalance in the distribution of cancer immunotherapy in developing and developed regions. In the United States, the high frequency of knowledge-based awareness campaigns encourages individuals to be diagnosed with cancer, and government insurance plans cover high treatment expenses.

For detailed information on improving your product’s footprint, request a sample here – https://www.factmr.com/connectus/sample?flag=S&rep_id=4367

In contrast, developing countries like Brazil and Argentina lack primary cancer treatment tools. A similar scenario is observed in South Africa, where the death rate is high, due to late diagnosis of cancer. The Asia-Pacific developing countries with high population density and medium penetration of quality treatments represent high potential markets for cancer immunotherapy.

Analyzing a number of dynamics, the Fact.MR study predicts strong opportunities in developing regions such as Latin America, the Middle East and Africa and Asia-Pacific, and predicts growth closely. 1.7 times the cancer immunotherapy market during the forecast period (2020-2025).

For critical insights into this market, request a methodology here – https://www.factmr.com/connectus/sample?flag=RM&rep_id=4367

Highlights From Cancer Immunotherapy Market Research

  • The qualitative approach to therapeutic development is becoming very costly for players in the cancer immunotherapy market. In addition, a high rejection of products in the trial phases leads to huge losses, which discourages manufacturers from developing new therapies.
  • The gradual increase in popularity of generic drugs, due to the affordability factor, is diverting the patient base from spending on brand-name drugs, thus weakening the sales prospects of manufacturers.
  • Incentives offered by central health authorities on the development of “orphan drugs” encourage established manufacturers to venture into this space.
  • Although hospitals occupy a dominant position as end-users in the cancer immunotherapy market, a shift of patients to clinics will remain notable for market players, due to shorter wait times and increased wait times. improvement of the health services offered by these establishments.

For an in-depth competitive analysis, buy now – https://www.factmr.com/checkout/4367

A health industry expert at Fact.MR deduces, “Manufacturers can focus more on the development of anti-cancer drugs, especially for lung cancer, given the influence of the multitude of factors that negatively impact lung health. By 2025, the adoption of immunotherapies to treat lung cancer is estimated at $ 38 billion.

Threat of conventional therapies to remain a growth barrier for manufacturers

The lack of proper awareness regarding advanced cancer treatment means that conventional therapies such as x-rays and chemotherapy will not become obsolete, at least in the near future. Manufacturers are stepping up efforts to innovate in their products to achieve orphan drug status and ensure high market value.

For complete information on this market adoption, ask an analyst here – https://www.factmr.com/connectus/sample?flag=AE&rep_id=4367

Pfizer, Inc. best illustrates this strategy. The company has taken multiple initiatives such as collaborations, alliances, mergers and licensing agreements to launch organic products and achieve orphan status for its products. Government financial support to manufacturers, with the goal of developing a promising pipeline of cancer therapies, is attracting a large number of new entrants, particularly in North America. However, the major players would face a low threat from new entrants, due to their high developing know-how and strong distribution networks.

Read more trend reports and the like from Fact.MR – https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ear-nose-throat-ent-medical-devices-manufacturers-target-applications-in-cataract–glaucoma-treatment-factmr-301262063.html

Explore Fact.MR’s comprehensive coverage of the healthcare landscape

Diabetes Diagnostics Market Competition Forecast, Trends, Analysis & Tracking – Global Market Overview 2020 to 2030: https://www.factmr.com/report/5446/diabetes-diagnostics-market

Dermatologic Diagnostic Devices Market Competition Forecast, Trends, Analysis & Tracking – Global Market Overview 2020 to 2030: https://www.factmr.com/report/5453/dermatology-diagnostic-devices-market

Paper diagnostics market Competition Forecast, Trends, Analysis & Tracking – Global Market Overview 2020 to 2030: https://www.factmr.com/report/5454/paper-diagnostics-market

About Us:

Market research and consulting agency with a difference! That’s why 80% of Fortune 1000 companies trust us to make their most critical decisions. While our experienced consultants use the latest technology to extract hard-to-find information, we believe our USP is the trust clients have in our expertise. Covering a wide spectrum – from Automotive and Industry 4.0 to Healthcare and Retail, our coverage is broad, but we make sure that even the most specialized categories are analyzed. Our sales offices in the United States and in Dublin, Ireland. Headquarters based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Contact us with your goals, and we will be a competent research partner.

Contact:

US Sales Office:
11140 Rockville Pike
Office 400
Rockville, Maryland 20852
United States
Phone. : +1 (628) 251-1583

The head office:
Unit number: AU-01-H Gold Tower (AU),
Plot number: JLT-PH1-I3A,
Jumeirah Lakes Tours,
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
E-mail: sales@factmr.com
Visit our website: https://www.factmr.com

]]>
https://6toros6.com/upcoming-requests-and-2025-growth-analysis-le-courrier/feed/ 0
May Jobs Report Shows Nothing Is Right About Post-Pandemic Labor Market | Economy https://6toros6.com/may-jobs-report-shows-nothing-is-right-about-post-pandemic-labor-market-economy/ https://6toros6.com/may-jobs-report-shows-nothing-is-right-about-post-pandemic-labor-market-economy/#respond Mon, 07 Jun 2021 15:38:36 +0000 https://6toros6.com/may-jobs-report-shows-nothing-is-right-about-post-pandemic-labor-market-economy/

The May Jobs Report had something for everyone.

President Joe Biden grabbed the 559,000 new jobs created, slightly below expectations of 650,000, as evidence that policies such as his $ 1.9 trillion US bailout passed by Congress two months after his taking office strive to get Americans back to work in a post-pandemic world.

“We have a chance to capitalize on the economic momentum of the first few months of my administration, not only to rebuild, but to rebuild better,” Biden said in remarks after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the report Friday. “This is already clear: we are on the right track. Our plan is working. And we are not going to give up now. We are going to keep moving forward.”

Political cartoons on the economy

Progressives have argued that with 9.3 million people still inactive, much remains to be done, including the passage of a $ 2 trillion infrastructure plan and an additional $ 1.8 trillion proposed for education, childhood and health programs.

“The US bailout, adopted through the efforts of the Biden administration and Congressional Democrats, was the first step in helping our economy and communities rebuild better – and it worked,” Heidi Heitkamp, former Democratic senator and co-founder of One Country Project, said.

“With federal funding and assistance, American workers were able to start looking for new jobs and employers were able to reopen their doors and hire workers,” Heitkamp added. “However, the past few months have shown that to create sustainable job growth, we must continue to pass laws that grow the economy and invest in long-term, well-paying jobs.”

On the other hand, Republicans seized the record 8.1 million job vacancies and the 9 million inactive as evidence that the policies of Biden and his Democratic allies are skewing the job market. The No.1 piece in their minds is the increase in unemployment benefits by $ 300 per week, which will expire in September, and the governors of 25 states have said they will end prematurely.

“The failed policies of Joe Biden and the Democrats have given us another month the economy has fallen short of expectations as Americans see the prices of gasoline, groceries and other essentials rise. soaring, “the Republican National Committee said in a statement. “Biden and the Democrats are preventing Americans from re-entering the workforce and, therefore, slowing our economy. Fortunately, Republican-led states are leading the recovery and are open for business.”

Economists, labor market experts, business leaders and human resources officials say the answer may well be neither. After a unique disruption to the economy and daily life, they say a new normal could be forming.

“It’s literally one of the most complex job markets we’ve seen,” says Scott Hamilton, global managing director of Gallagher’s human resources and compensation consulting practice. “And it all happened in a very short time.”

An upcoming Gallagher survey of hundreds of employers found that nearly one in five employers have at least 50% of their workforce working remotely.

Many trends now facing employees and employers were underway before the coronavirus hit in early 2020, but have only accelerated since: growing numbers of baby boomers retiring, the US birth rate falling below replacement levels, more restrictive immigration policies and a change in the relationship between companies and their employees.

As a result, a mismatch has developed between demand for labor and supply, which will make it more difficult for the country to fully recover from the economic damage of COVID-19. Normally, a month that saw over 500,000 new jobs created would be something to celebrate.

“When is the addition of over half a million new positions disappointing?” asks Joel Naroff, President and CEO of Naroff Economics. “Since 1940, the economy has added more jobs than was created in May just 17 times, and seven of them have been added in the past year.”

But these are not normal times, as 22 million jobs were lost last year due to the recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

“The drop in the official unemployment rate should be seen as a matter of great concern,” said Michael Farren, economist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. “Unemployment is actually expected to rise as workers re-enter the workforce, given that vaccines are widely available and most lockdowns have been lifted. “

Farren added: “The labor market is still 3.5 million workers smaller than it was in February 2020, and an additional 2.25 million young people have become of working age in the past 15 years. months – the decrease in the size of the workforce indicates that there are still many people who are not even trying to find a job.

Meanwhile, companies continue to say they plan to increase hiring in the future.

A Manpower survey of more than 7,300 employers to be released this week found that US companies are expected to have the best prospects for hiring since 2000. Yet the Gallagher survey also found that employee turnover has increased over the years. Over the past 15 months, with 13% of businesses experiencing turnover rates of 30% or more, more than three times what was expected.

And a US Chamber of Commerce poll released Friday of unemployed Americans found that 30 percent said they had no plans to return to work this year, and 13 percent said they never expected to go back.

“Extrapolated to 9.3 million unemployed Americans reported today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that’s about 2.8 million people who will be left on the sidelines this year, of whom 1.2 million never expect to return. work, “the chamber said in a statement.

One of the obstacles to the return of workers is the obsolete attitude of the company and the professional demands. While this is not a new problem, it has been exacerbated by the pandemic, which has highlighted long-standing barriers to employment, such as lack of skills, childcare options. children for working parents and accessibility.

“Even before the pandemic, traditional views about what makes a candidate employable prevented skilled workers from seeking open jobs,” said Michael Hansen, CEO of Cengage, an educational technology company that helps companies train workers. “About 65% of jobs require a two or four year degree, creating stigma around non-traditional education pathways and shaking the confidence of job seekers.”

Cengage recently released its report on the employability of graduates, a investigation who found that more than half of new graduates are not convinced that employers should require a traditional degree to apply for most jobs, adds Hansen.

And while companies have generally said they are happy with the results of remote working during the pandemic, many still believe workers should return to their offices now that the pandemic is under control. Workers, however, continue to express a preference for flexible working hours and remote working options, suggesting that the two labor market players are not aligned.

“If you go back in time to March (of 2020), everyone was affected,” says Kathryn Petralia, co-founder and president of small business finance company Kabbage. “People took this time to figure out what they were going to do.”

And one of those things is the desire to work remotely, at least some of the time, and maintain a better work-life balance, according to surveys.

“That’s exactly what we’re seeing,” says Rebecca Croucher, senior vice president of Manpower and head of marketing for North America. “I personally recruit for about six roles, 100% can be remote. I feel relieved when I can put remote on display.”

Coursera CEO Jeff Maggioncalda said of the current job market: “What you are seeing is dynamism, an unprecedented pace of change. I think the new normal, the next normal if you will, we haven’t figured out yet. “

At Coursera, which provides online learning tools for employers and employees, the remote option exists for all employees. Instead of relying solely on a pool of workers within an hour or so of the company’s headquarters in Silicon Valley, Maggioncalda says it can attract workers from across the country.

“There is an imbalance and if we don’t give workers flexibility, other companies will,” he says. “Employees, especially the most talented, will set the rules.”

]]>
https://6toros6.com/may-jobs-report-shows-nothing-is-right-about-post-pandemic-labor-market-economy/feed/ 0
If 424,000 children were roaming the streets, would you help? | Opinion News https://6toros6.com/if-424000-children-were-roaming-the-streets-would-you-help-opinion-news/ https://6toros6.com/if-424000-children-were-roaming-the-streets-would-you-help-opinion-news/#respond Fri, 04 Jun 2021 11:02:41 +0000 https://6toros6.com/if-424000-children-were-roaming-the-streets-would-you-help-opinion-news/
Miles McPherson
Courtesy of SD Rock / Nathan Maselli

Between Mother’s Day and Father’s Day, I have spent the last few weeks reflecting on the amazing parents in our church community. I am continually inspired by the selflessness and courage shown by these parents! If you are a parent, I hope you know how important you are. While most of what you do may seem invisible and unappreciated, your daily acts of sacrificial love carry just as deep a weight in the kingdom of God as any sermon preached from the pulpit.

In this sense, I want to take the time to share on a subject that has weighed heavily on my heart: foster parenting. For those of you who don’t know, May is Foster Family Awareness Month. The purpose of foster care is to provide physical and emotional support to children who have been displaced, abused and abandoned by placing them in the temporary care of loving guardians. Any strategy that aims to provide a safe environment for children is undoubtedly a topic worthy of our attention!

It’s important to note that our post-pandemic world has created even more urgency around foster care than ever before. As a result of the virus and the resulting quarantine, the number of children in the foster care system has skyrocketed well above the number of approved sponsors. According to a recent statistic, there are approximately 424,000 young people in foster care nationwide. And experts suggest that number will rise even more as students return to school and more cases of abuse are reported by teachers and counselors. There are simply not enough foster parents to cover the needs.

If 424,000 children wandered our neighborhoods and streets in search of food and shelter, I imagine many of us would respond immediately. We would open our homes for the night and provide temporary shelter for these children. The current foster care crisis in the United States may be taking place behind the scenes, but there is no doubt that it is urgent.

The need is great, and the conversation is heavy. But we also serve a great God. And the more I think about fostering, the more I recognize how much it reflects the heart of God.

God takes care of the orphan and the widow (Psalm 68: 5). It’s all about bringing lonely people into families (Psalm 68: 6). He cares deeply for these broken families and the children touched by them, and he has equipped his Church to be the solution. As James reminds us, “The religion which God our Father accepts as pure and without blemish is this: to care for orphans and widows in their distress and to beware of being polluted by the world” (James 1:27) .

I understand that for many people, the thought of getting involved with a foster family can seem daunting, especially after the imbalance our world has experienced over the past year. For some, the logistics are overwhelming. You may be wondering, “Where do I start? or “How do I get approved?” For others, the emotional burden of foster care may seem too heavy to bear. “How can I afford to get attached to someone who might eventually be reunited with their biological parents?” “I’m afraid I’m getting too attached, so I don’t want to take any chances.” Still others may not feel equipped to foster. Maybe they have resources and a lot of love to share, but feel like they are in the bad season of life.

I want to encourage you. If you feel the slightest pangs when reading this (and even if you don’t!), Take the time to pray and ask God how you can help in His mission to restore a healthy family. Perhaps God will invite you to make a commitment to pray for students in host families or to financially support a host organization. You may feel compelled to take the first step towards fostering. A large organization is Christian Alliance for Orphans Home – Christian Alliance for Orphans (cafo.org) This is a great faith-based resource for individuals, churches, or organizations who want to know how to get involved in foster care. On the site, you can find out how to host families locally, who to contact and data on the needs of young people in foster care in their area. There are also additional resources to help support those who want to foster.

Whatever role you feel called upon to take on, remember that you are the hands and feet of Jesus in the world. As followers of Jesus, we are called to demonstrate the same radical and sacrificial love with which he walked. We are called to undertake a journey of death to ourselves. Becoming a foster parent – or supporting other foster parents along their journey – is a way of giving our life to serve others. There are many other ways as well. But maybe – just maybe – it’s a path that you feel invited to take. How can the Church meet the need for post-pandemic foster care? We have to start by taking the first small step.

Miles McPherson is the senior pastor of Rock Church in San Diego. He is also a motivational speaker and author. McPherson’s last book “The third option”Speaks of the racial divisions pervasive in today’s culture and argues that we must learn to see people not by the color of their skin, but as God sees them – humans created in the image of God.

Connect: https://milesmcpherson.com
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/milesmcpherson/
FB: https://www.facebook.com/pastor.miles.mcpherson/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/milesmcpherson

]]>
https://6toros6.com/if-424000-children-were-roaming-the-streets-would-you-help-opinion-news/feed/ 0
Optimistic about Iran nuclear deal https://6toros6.com/optimistic-about-iran-nuclear-deal/ https://6toros6.com/optimistic-about-iran-nuclear-deal/#respond Fri, 04 Jun 2021 05:12:01 +0000 https://6toros6.com/optimistic-about-iran-nuclear-deal/

One of the most negative results obtained by Hamas with its unnecessary “11-day war” was certainly one of prioritizing the political solution to form a strong government in Israel, after four rounds of snap elections were not enough to put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the position of have the majority of seats in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament.

When rocket fire from Gaza into Israeli towns and retaliatory shelling from the Jewish side ceased on May 21, thanks to the direct mediation of Egyptian President Al Sisi, Palestinian extremists from Hamas, who has ruled the Gaza Strip for 14 years, and their associates in the Palestinian Islamic Jihad not only failed to achieve one of the alleged objectives of the war operations launched without warning on May 10 – with a salute of rockets fired at major Israeli cities with the clear intention of causing civilian carnage – but they have in fact found themselves isolated in an Arab world which, apart from a rather weak manifestation of solidarity, has not taken steps to threaten – for the umpteenth time in a century – direct intervention to “destroy the Zionist entity. “.

Immediately after the end of the missile crisis, consultations between the political forces resumed in Israel, with a view to forming a government which should end the 12 years of the Netanyahu era, with the creation of a “grand coalition »Led by the head of the Yamina party (“the right”), Naftali Bennett, and by the leader of the centrist party Yesid Atid party, Yair Lapid, which will include representatives of seven parties, including representatives of the Arab-Islamic community Raam Party.

Other prominent politicians in the new Israeli government will be Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White political alliance, and Avigdor Lieberman, the former foreign minister and secretary of the Israel Beytenu Party.

With a government endowed with a large parliamentary majority, Israel will have to face the problems left unresolved after a brief conflict from May 10 to 21 which, while seeing the failure of the military objectives of the Palestinian extremists, demands however the solution of political problems problems of great geopolitical importance.

With the “Abraham Accords” of August 2020 which, under the aegis of then-US President Donald Trump and with Saudi Arabia’s pragmatic “non-opposition”, led to the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, the Arab front – once unanimously against Israel – has further fragmented, leaving Qatar, the traditional godfather of Islamic jihadist extremists and the most radical fringes of the Palestinian resistance, totally isolated and marginalized.

The most enigmatic position, for the moment, remains that of Erdogan’s Turkey.

The Turkish president probably realized that in recent years he had made too many enemies on the international stage, and his dream of making Turkey a hegemonic power at the regional level was shattered after the defeats inflicted by the Muslim Brotherhood in all the Arab states, after the failure of the false “springs” and the bloody anti-Assad insurgency which ultimately had the only real result of strengthening the Russian presence in the region and in the Mediterranean basin.

Despite sending a large naval force to the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey also missed the opportunity to participate – in a climate of cooperation – in the search for marine reserves of natural gas in the maritime area between Egypt and Cyprus. . This research also sees the participation of Israel and Greece who, along with Cyprus, have established a tripartite economic alliance which, by also co-opting Egypt from Al Sisi, could help further isolate Turkey.

It is probably for these reasons that Turkey not only did not go beyond a simple show of solidarity with the Palestinians during the “11-day war”, but also hinted that it would like to improve its diplomatic relations with Israel, considering that – despite propaganda and verbal threats – President Erdogan continues to enjoy excellent and prosperous trade relations with Israel (indeed, bilateral trade between the two countries during the crisis has even increased) .

On the other hand, only a few months ago, in December of last year, the Turkish president made a startling public statement when he admitted: “Our relations with Israel in the field of intelligence, however, do not have not stopped and still continue … We have difficulties with some people at the top (ie Netanyahu, editor’s note) ”.

This ambivalent attitude of Turkey towards Israel is similar to its attitude towards President Biden’s administration.

Despite President Erdogan’s verbal protests against the official recognition by the new American president of the Armenian genocide, with the appointment of a new pro-Western ambassador to the United States, Turkey wants to ease tensions with the United States, also by an attitude of moderation and self-restraint towards Israel. According to Israeli analyst Ely Karmon, Israel’s future policy towards Erdogan’s Turkey should be based on a “trust but verification approach”.

The most burning issue that the new Israeli government will have to deal with remains that of Iran.

The threat posed to Israel’s very survival by Iran’s nuclear program is not underestimated by any political force.

Hopes of a slowdown in Iranian nuclear research after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the agreement Iran signed in 2015 with China, France, the United States, Germany and Russia, which foresaw substantial limits on uranium enrichment in Iranian facilities – collapsed in the face of Iran’s reluctance to directly control its developments, and after Donald Trump’s decision to denounce its inefficiency.

This is the reason why Israel continued its policy of cyber-sabotage of Iranian installations and of “selective elimination” of the scientists involved in the program (the latest victim is the head of the Iranian nuclear program, Moshem Fakhrizadeh, killed at the outskirts of Tehran on November 27, 2020).

Two main representatives of Israeli intelligence, namely Ephraim Halevy, former head of Mossad, and retired General Aharon Zeevi Farkash, former head of military intelligence A man, clearly expressed their point of view on the subject. In an article published in Haaretz on April 22, 2021, they outlined what Israel’s strategy should be in dealing with the Iranian nuclear problem. On the one hand, intelligence ‘pressure’ against the program should be continued, given that it will take two years to build a nuclear weapon anyway, once acceptable levels of uranium enrichment are reached. achieved (a decision Iran has yet to make). On the other hand, the JCPOA should be reactivated, with new American involvement and with the support from Israel’s new positive relations with many Arab countries, in order to exert political and diplomatic pressure on Iran – also. in light of Saudi Arabia’s recent low-key diplomatic steps vis-à-vis Iran and Assad-led Syria – with the aim of improving mutual relations and reducing tensions in the South African region. Gulf, starting with the civil war in Yemen, where Iran supports the Houthi rebels.

Diplomacy is therefore underway and, in order to obtain positive results in easing regional tensions, it must take into account two other important strategic players, namely Russia and China.

Russia is now firmly established in Syria, where it intervened in 2015 to save the Assad regime from defeat to the Islamic State and where it will play a leading role in the reconstruction of the country, 75% destroyed. after a decade of civil war. – after having also firmly established itself militarily in the port of Tartous and in the air base of Khemeimim, in the north of the country.

Vladimir Putin was the first Russian president to visit Israel in 2005.

Since then he has been managing relations with Israel by granting them a “special status” and – despite some apparent disagreements – also thanks to the professional work of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, he has brought about a positive change in Russian-Israeli bilateral relations. , which makes Russia a credible counterpart on all negotiating tables in the Middle East.

The other counterpart in the increasingly influential region is President Xi Jinping’s China.

As early as the 1990s, China and Israel forged strong bilateral economic ties, particularly in the defense industry, thus sparking ill-concealed concerns in the United States.

These relations have developed alongside numerous political and economic agreements between China and the Gulf states, which has enabled China to play a growing role throughout the region.

The truce enters Hamas and Israel was negotiated by Egyptian President Al Sisi, but it was also achieved through the behind-the-scenes work done by Chinese diplomacy in the UN Security Council.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict – in a scenario that remains complex, but sees the majority of political actors engage in the search for new models of cooperation and peaceful coexistence – has in reality become marginal, after having been for seventy center of gravity of Middle Eastern dynamics. years. This probably helps to explain the desperate movement of Hamas who, on May 10, tried to thwart the negotiations by launching missiles against Israeli towns, without significantly influencing regional balances.

This is the reality that the new Israeli government will have to face. A situation unimaginable a few years ago and which leads us to say – paraphrasing Winston Churchill – that, when it comes to the conflict in Palestine, “this is not the end. It’s not even the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning ”.

]]>
https://6toros6.com/optimistic-about-iran-nuclear-deal/feed/ 0
After the resolution of the political crisis in Israel, are the prospects for peace in the Middle East getting closer? https://6toros6.com/after-the-resolution-of-the-political-crisis-in-israel-are-the-prospects-for-peace-in-the-middle-east-getting-closer/ https://6toros6.com/after-the-resolution-of-the-political-crisis-in-israel-are-the-prospects-for-peace-in-the-middle-east-getting-closer/#respond Fri, 04 Jun 2021 05:01:36 +0000 https://6toros6.com/after-the-resolution-of-the-political-crisis-in-israel-are-the-prospects-for-peace-in-the-middle-east-getting-closer/

One of the most negative results obtained by Hamas with its unnecessary “11-day war” was certainly one of prioritizing the political solution to form a strong government in Israel, after four rounds of snap elections were not enough to put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the position of have the majority of seats in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament.

When rocket fire from Gaza into Israeli towns and retaliatory shelling from the Jewish side ceased on May 21, thanks to the direct mediation of Egyptian President Al Sisi, Palestinian extremists from Hamas, who has ruled the Gaza Strip for 14 years, and their associates in the Palestinian Islamic Jihad not only failed to achieve one of the alleged objectives of the war operations launched without warning on May 10 – with a salute of rockets fired at major Israeli cities with the clear intention of causing civilian carnage – but they have in fact found themselves isolated in an Arab world which, apart from a rather weak manifestation of solidarity, has not taken steps to threaten – for the umpteenth time in a century – direct intervention to “destroy the Zionist entity. “.

Immediately after the end of the missile crisis, consultations between the political forces resumed in Israel, with a view to forming a government which should end the 12 years of the Netanyahu era, with the creation of a “grand coalition »Led by the head of the Yamina party (“the right”), Naftali Bennett, and by the leader of the centrist party Yesid Atid party, Yair Lapid, which will include representatives of seven parties, including representatives of the Arab-Islamic community Raam Party.

Other prominent politicians in the new Israeli government will be Benny Gantz, the leader of the Blue and White political alliance, and Avigdor Lieberman, the former foreign minister and secretary of the Israel Beytenu Party.

With a government endowed with a large parliamentary majority, Israel will have to face the challenges left unresolved after a brief conflict from May 10 to 21 which, while seeing the failure of the military objectives of the Palestinian extremists, necessitates however the solution of problems of great geopolitical importance.

With the “Abraham Accords” of August 2020 which, under the aegis of then-US President Donald Trump and with Saudi Arabia’s pragmatic “non-opposition”, led to the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, the Arab front – once unanimously against Israel – has further fragmented, leaving Qatar, the traditional godfather of Islamic jihadist extremists and the most radical fringes of the Palestinian resistance, totally isolated and marginalized.

The most enigmatic position, for the moment, remains that of Erdogan’s Turkey.

The Turkish president probably realized that in recent years he had made too many enemies on the international stage, and his dream of making Turkey a hegemonic power at the regional level was shattered after the defeats inflicted by the Muslim Brotherhood in all the Arab states, after the failure of the false “springs” and the bloody anti-Assad insurgency which ultimately had the only real result of strengthening the Russian presence in the region and in the Mediterranean basin.

Despite sending a large naval force to the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey also missed the opportunity to participate – in a climate of cooperation – in the search for marine reserves of natural gas in the maritime area between Egypt and Cyprus. . This research also sees the participation of Israel and Greece who, along with Cyprus, have established a tripartite economic alliance which, by also co-opting Egypt from Al Sisi, could help further isolate Turkey.

It is probably for these reasons that Turkey not only did not go beyond a simple show of solidarity with the Palestinians during the “11-day war”, but also hinted that it would like to improve its diplomatic relations with Israel, considering that – despite propaganda and verbal threats – President Erdogan continues to enjoy excellent and prosperous trade relations with Israel (indeed, bilateral trade between the two countries during the crisis has even increased) .

On the other hand, only a few months ago, in December of last year, the Turkish president made a startling public statement when he admitted: “Our relations with Israel in the field of intelligence, however, do not have not stopped and still continue … We have difficulties with some people at the top (ie Netanyahu, editor’s note) ”.

This ambivalent attitude of Turkey towards Israel is similar to its attitude towards President Biden’s administration.

Despite President Erdogan’s verbal protests against the official recognition by the new American president of the Armenian genocide, with the appointment of a new pro-Western ambassador to the United States, Turkey wants to ease tensions with the United States, also by an attitude of moderation and self-restraint towards Israel. According to Israeli analyst Ely Karmon, Israel’s future policy towards Erdogan’s Turkey should be based on a “trust but verification approach”.

The most burning issue that the new Israeli government will have to deal with remains that of Iran.

The threat posed to Israel’s very survival by Iran’s nuclear program is not underestimated by any political force.

Hopes of a slowdown in Iranian nuclear research after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the agreement Iran signed in 2015 with China, France, the United States, Germany and Russia, which foresaw substantial limits on uranium enrichment in Iranian facilities – collapsed in the face of Iran’s reluctance to directly control its developments, and after Donald Trump’s decision to denounce its inefficiency.

This is the reason why Israel continued its policy of cyber-sabotage of Iranian installations and of “selective elimination” of the scientists involved in the program (the latest victim is the head of the Iranian nuclear program, Moshem Fakhrizadeh, killed at the outskirts of Tehran on November 27, 2020).

Two main representatives of Israeli intelligence, namely Ephraim Halevy, former head of Mossad, and retired General Aharon Zeevi Farkash, former head of military intelligence A man, clearly expressed their point of view on the subject. In an article published in Haaretz on April 22, 2021, they outlined what Israel’s strategy should be in dealing with the Iranian nuclear problem. On the one hand, intelligence ‘pressure’ against the program should be continued, given that it will take two years to build a nuclear weapon anyway, once acceptable levels of uranium enrichment are reached. achieved (a gesture that Iran has not yet made). On the other hand, the JCPOA should be reactivated, with new American involvement and with the support from Israel’s new positive relations with many Arab countries, in order to exert political and diplomatic pressure on Iran – also. in light of the discreet diplomatic moves recently taken by Saudi Arabia vis-à-vis Iran and Assad-ruled Syria – with the aim of improving mutual relations and reducing tensions in the South African region. Gulf, starting with the civil war in Yemen, where Iran supports the Houthi rebels.

Diplomacy is therefore underway and, in order to obtain positive results in easing regional tensions, it must take into account two other important strategic players, namely Russia and China.

Russia is now firmly established in Syria, where it intervened in 2015 to save the Assad regime from defeat to the Islamic State and where it will play a leading role in the reconstruction of the country, 75% destroyed. after a decade of civil war. – after having also firmly established itself militarily in the port of Tartous and in the air base of Khemeimim, in the north of the country.

Vladimir Putin was the first Russian president to visit Israel in 2005.

Since then he has been managing relations with Israel by granting them a “special status” and – despite some apparent disagreements – also thanks to the professional work of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, he has brought about a positive change in Russian-Israeli bilateral relations. , which makes Russia a credible counterpart on all negotiating tables in the Middle East.

The other counterpart in the increasingly influential region is President Xi Jinping’s China.

As early as the 1990s, China and Israel forged strong bilateral economic ties, particularly in the defense industry, thus sparking ill-concealed concerns in the United States.

These relations have developed alongside numerous political and economic agreements between China and the Gulf states, which has enabled China to play a growing role throughout the region.

The truce enters Hamas and Israel was negotiated by Egyptian President Al Sisi, but it was also achieved through the behind-the-scenes work done by Chinese diplomacy in the UN Security Council.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict – in a scenario that remains complex, but sees the majority of political actors engage in the search for new models of cooperation and peaceful coexistence – has in reality become marginal, after having been for seventy center of gravity of Middle Eastern dynamics. years. This probably helps to explain the desperate movement of Hamas who, on May 10, tried to thwart the negotiations by launching missiles against Israeli towns, without significantly influencing regional balances.

This is the reality that the new Israeli government will have to face. A situation unimaginable a few years ago and which leads us to say – paraphrasing Winston Churchill – that, when it comes to the conflict in Palestine, “this is not the end. It’s not even the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning ”.

]]>
https://6toros6.com/after-the-resolution-of-the-political-crisis-in-israel-are-the-prospects-for-peace-in-the-middle-east-getting-closer/feed/ 0
The NIC Global Trends 2040 report: a development perspective https://6toros6.com/the-nic-global-trends-2040-report-a-development-perspective/ https://6toros6.com/the-nic-global-trends-2040-report-a-development-perspective/#respond Thu, 03 Jun 2021 04:06:24 +0000 https://6toros6.com/the-nic-global-trends-2040-report-a-development-perspective/

The recently released National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2040 The report, lasting over 140 pages, is entitled “A more contested world”. This title should come as no surprise to development professionals. The report, reviewed by new Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, before being sent to President Biden and Congress, examines key trends that will likely influence U.S. national security through 2040. I blogged on the Global Trends Report in 2015, when it was set to be unveiled at the Splashing South-by-Southwest (SXSW) Festival in Austin. This year’s public release was much more low-key and the overall outlook decidedly more dark, chaotic and turbulent, not only the lingering fallout from a ‘long tail’ COVID-19 pandemic, but the worrying environmental consequences of climate change on everything from glacier and sea ​​level rise, more frequent and intense tropical storms, and an unprecedented number of Forest fires, like those observed last year in the western United States. The NIC report also talks about the disturbing societal changes to come, characterized by a growing gap between what governments can reliably deliver and what citizens can reasonably expect.

Structural strengths:

The report identifies four trends or “structural forces” at work – demographic, economic, environmental and technological – that will anchor almost everything else in its forecast. These factors were selected because they are central to the assessment of any future world and because the projections for these forces are based on historical data. This in turn means that we can have a reasonable degree of confidence in how they will play out over time. After describing these structural forces and examining their longer-term trajectories, the report takes a more dynamic look at how they interact with other ‘factors’ to influence individuals, society, states, and the international system in the world. wider. The level of uncertainty begins to increase for this second section of the report, as you would expect, as projections and their complex interactions are less reliant on historical data and more conditioned on the interplay of speculative human factors and choices. .

Recurring themes:

Throughout the report, the authors focus on four themes that are at play and feed off each other. The first one, shared global challenges, includes the pervasive threats of climate change, the spread of disease, sudden and acute financial crises, and inevitable technological disruption. If left unchecked, these threats can accelerate existing food and water insecurity in poor countries, lead to increased migration, undermine health care and accelerate biodiversity loss. New technologies will almost certainly disrupt jobs, reconfigure the workplace and challenge traditional means of income generation.

The second recurring theme is fragmentation in which increased connectivity leads to greater dependence which can backfire on society and effectively divide and fragment people into like-minded silos and rally citizens around national, cultural or political poles. Imbalance, the third theme, refers to the natural collision of the first two themes in which existing systems and structures begin to falter, crumble and ultimately fail, traditional rules and norms are upset, and people scramble to build a new order.

All this leads to the fourth theme, challenge, best viewed as a constant ebb and flow of disputes, arguments and quarrels within communities and states with the resulting fractures. On the international stage, contestation leads to unhealthy competition, unprecedented geopolitical tensions, and states and countries advancing without rules to exploit the advantages and fill the voids.

The final and perhaps most revealing theme revolves around adaptation, in which countries and societies thrive or decline based on their ability to adjust, change, reorganize or reshape their strategies and approaches in everything from climate, migration and employment to trade flows and technological innovations . How countries adapt to underlying demographic changes, such as the “big bulge” in major developed countries, can seriously hold back economic growth without creative and widely adopted innovations like AI. than the United States just reported its birth rate fell for the sixth consecutive year in 2020, and just released data showing that the Chinese population has grown at its own pace slowest rate since the 1950s, may be a harbinger of what is to come. How countries cope with the growing concentration of their citizens in cities and to what extent, in turn, these cities can provide essential services will be a key to adaptation. For Asia, I blogged about these urban challenges in 2015, noting that proactive efforts to tackle urbanization were scarce then. Adaptation overall, according to the report, will be most effective in countries that build and maintain trust between the public and private sectors.

Emerging scenarios:

The final section of the report ends with five scenarios or vignettes on how these strengths, the factors that motivate them, and recurring themes are likely to unfold through 2040. Not surprisingly, three of the scenarios revolve around US competition. -Chinese in the years to come, namely, the “Renaissance of Democracies”, “A Drifting World” and “Competitive Coexistence”. For those new to script generation, eye-catching titles are a key requirement that allows the reader to go beyond the data to see a distinct picture with no overlap from one storyline to another. The two remaining scenarios, neither related to how China and the United States grapple with looming global issues, are called “Separate Silos” and “Tragedy and Mobilization”. These scenarios stem from a series of what the report calls global discontinuities that cause the United States and China to focus most of their energies on other pressing issues like the disintegration of global supply chains … and not on their ongoing rivalries. in itself.

Five consequences on development:

There are five consequences to which development actors should be particularly attentive:

  • Peak progress: Many of the hard-won gains over the past two decades to boost economic growth and prosperity, improve quality of life, and support democratic processes for people in the developing world are in jeopardy.
  • Changing demographics: World population growth is slowing as the world begins to age. Regional differences in growth, economic disparities and the disputes and conflicts they engender, including mass migration, will be more pronounced and will require more targeted aid approaches.
  • Environmental reduction: Climate change and the degradation that will result from it will fall squarely on the backs of developing countries, creating greater hardship, undermining or even nullifying economic gains, and creating new development challenges while making old ones more acute.
  • Weakened institutions: Confidence in institutions, from governments to civil society organizations, will weaken, skepticism growing about the ability of institutions to meet urgent needs, and the consensus for collective action will dry up. This “trust gap” is accentuated by disinformation campaigns, increased control of the media and citizens who flock to associate only with like-minded ethnic, religious and cultural groups. These societal trends are likely to fuel a rise in nationalist sentiment, undermining political human rights, the rule of law and democratic institutions.
  • Relentless competition: The rivalry between China and the United States continues to increase as global international standards plunge, multilateral institutions lose their grip as cooperation wanes, stronger regional actors emerge, and non-state actors gain influence. China will continue to expand its international influence and offer an alternative vision for a new international order. In this growing global uncertainty and in an era of competition for dominant powers, increased conflict and volatility are likely to be byproducts that will undermine civic stability and pose risks to democracy.

As 2040 is a few years away, development agencies and their partners, as well as multilateral institutions and governments, are not sitting idly by. President Biden recently held a Meet of 40 world leaders to rally them to redouble their efforts to avoid a worsening of the climate crisis. the world Bank just pledged a 35% increase in climate finance over the next five years to further address this challenge. With regard to building and maintaining institutional trust, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation explores new paradigms to improve how governments improve their responsiveness to citizen needs in order to further strengthen fragile democracies. And, using horizon scanning techniques, UNDP examines emerging governance approaches to better understand the challenges ahead and how countries can recalibrate their efforts to build more lasting trust. Other global challenges outlined in the NIC report, such as emerging disruptive technologies, growing rivalry between China and the United States, and mass migration, will require a major overhaul of current development approaches. Certainly, these evaluations are already underway.

Steve gale is Senior Foresight Advisor at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Bureau for Policy, Planning and Learning. He is the representative of the United States and the 2021 co-chair with Switzerland of the Friends of Foresight OECD / DAC community of practice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of USAID or the United States government.

Sources: Axios, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, NASA, New Security Beat, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Reuters, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The New York Times, The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, The Washington Post, The White House, World Bank, United Nations Development Program.

Photo credit: Cover of Global trends 2040: a more contested world, courtesy of the National Intelligence Council.

]]>
https://6toros6.com/the-nic-global-trends-2040-report-a-development-perspective/feed/ 0
Try to stop the first Hairy Man https://6toros6.com/try-to-stop-the-first-hairy-man/ https://6toros6.com/try-to-stop-the-first-hairy-man/#respond Wed, 02 Jun 2021 21:33:45 +0000 https://6toros6.com/try-to-stop-the-first-hairy-man/

I’m not sure if you’ve all noticed this out there in the tipping land, but we’re in the presence of greatness right now.

You see, very slowly to the far left of the panel is a hairy South American. You know him as the Roarer with beautiful prose, long engaging reads on Springbok passion and with an inappropriate crush bordering on Pieter-Steph du Toit.

We just know him as the rotten shit that just can’t stop being right about rugby.

In the last five rounds, the Hairy Man has amassed 19 great tips in 20 games. Best of all, he’s 17 of 17 in the last four rounds and has yet to stumble in Trans-Tasman.

He just can’t hurt, and with his tipping record now in the spotlight, all the pressure is on to keep it going. I mean imagine you messed up when people realize how good you are.

In other news, the Sure Thing is back, the Blues still suck, and tips too!

Last week
Harry and Dan: 5;
Digger and the crowd: 4; and
Geoff and Brett: 3.

Overall
Harry and Dan: 47;
Crowd: 44;
Geoff: 43;
Digger: 40; and
Brett: 37.

Harry

Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs

After making my way from the depths to the top of the table, I tackle a tricky ride with Digger’s confidence, Geoff’s humility, Dan’s serenity and Brett’s cheek.

A Force match against the Crusaders in Christchurch appears to be a mismatch – a tough little terrier entering the lair of a pack of gray wolves. Sad.

My favorite Australian team, the Reds, welcome my favorite Kiwi team, the Blues, for the little-known Stendhal Cup. Blues by a few, but only a few.

The Waratahs won’t solve the mystery of winning Dunedin, but the Hurricanes won’t unlock the keys to winning in Canberra, either.

The chastened leaders will bounce and dunk on the rebels.

sure thing
Damian McKenzie’s hair is the cause of his imbalance.

(Photo by Kai Schwoerer / Getty Images)

Dan

Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs

Three of the meetings this weekend are simple things. The Force doesn’t have enough points in them to surprise the Crusaders, nor do the Rebels to topple the Chiefs, although the hosts will miss their main pivot of attack. The Waratahs, meanwhile, have the opposite problem: they will put a few tries in front of the Landers but concede a lot more in return.

The remaining two matches could go either way. The Reds will be supported by breaking their competitive duck last week, but without Fraser McReight and Seru Uru coming off the bench I’m not sure they picked their best team possible.

The Blues, meanwhile, have the pack to nullify – or at least break even – the Queensland melee and the offensive talent to make the most of that advantage.

In Canberra, it looks like the time has come for the Brumbies’ victory. Their grueling road trip is over and they’ve shown they can gusty with New Zealand’s top teams. At home, they will do so for the 80s and take their first victory of the campaign.

sure thing
A clear red card will be issued and everyone will nod in agreement without any complaints. Not this week, of course, but ultimately.

Blues' Rieko Ioane celebrates scoring a try

(Photo by Dave Rowland / Getty Images)

Excavator

Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders, Hurricanes, Chiefs

Sadly it looks like the Force in Perth and the Force away from Perth are two completely separate entities, I’m sure they will face off with a solid performance, but the Crusaders at home should be too good.

The Reds have shown they are up to the challenge this week, and it will be a big challenge for the Blues in Brisbane, but I can’t get rid of this Townsville second half and I will tentatively pick the Blues, who have shown good composure. through their 80-minute TT performances.

In what is clearly the game of the round, the Hurricanes have everything to do in Canberra. I expect the Brumbies to be a lot better at home, but you know, Canes by a lot just because they have to.

And the Rebels maybe just have a hit here against the Chiefs, but I choose they might be a little sore after last weekend, so they’ll bounce back, while the Highlanders should do it on a constant Waratahs outfit. improvement.

sure thing
I expect a few more balls to be thrown onto the field in Canberra on Saturday night from an overzealous touchdown commentator in a desperate attempt to slow the game down.

Noah Lolesio celebrates with his teammates

Noah Lolesio. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris / Getty Images)

Geoff

Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders, Hurricanes, Chiefs

Even at less force, the Crusaders have the Force well covered. The match of the round arrives at the beginning of the week, with the Blues a more conventional match for the Reds, who have had their hands full defensively during the last fortnight.

It should be a great contest, but I love the way the Blues focus fully on the disappointment of missing the Super Rugby Aotearoa final.

Before the competition, you never really felt the Highlanders were good enough to win all five games. But are the Waratahs on the side of proving this point? Difficult to be confident.

After a month on the road, the Brumbies will be better off at home. Much better. And the Canes should throw a wobbly. But it’s a draw for visitors.

There’s no reason the Rebels can’t continue to improve, especially if Jordan Uelese remembers engaging his brain this week. But that’s not enough to tip them against the Chiefs, who will test them with their speed and agility on the clock.

sure thing
The extended lockdown in Melbourne is wreaking havoc. There are only a limited number of times you can see John Cena apologize for calling Taiwan a just country to avoid politicians and officials. We need more rugby to fill our days. Double turn it!

Hurricanes' Salesi Rayasi beats a tackle to score

(Photo by Mark Tantrum / Getty Images)

Brett

Crusaders, Reds, Highlanders, Brumbies, Chefs

Well, there is another tip blowing season. Like the rest of them, it will soon be toast until it has a darker side to Darth Vader before being tossed aside and dumped as unwanted TV content on a sports network.

This week, the Force will find out firsthand just how good the Crusaders depth is, as tackle bag holders, assistant coaches, and maybe even some actual tackle bags show off skills to die for.

In a way, I am the only one to have chosen the Reds, but I have a completely different outlook: I am the only one not to be disappointed after giving the Blues the benefit of a considerable doubt.

The Waratahs matches in this series have so far featured 17 tries, ten tries and 11 tries, and I sincerely think we’ll see another number in that range on Saturday. Of course, how many of them on the Highlanders ‘score will depend on the Waratahs’ attitude in defense, which has sadly been missing like a few big names this season.

The Hurricanes suddenly find themselves facing pressure for the first time in quite a while, and they’re nervous about it because they always know they can be a little flaky. And now they face the injured Brumbies with five straight losses for the first time since 2018 and only the second time in a decade.

Oh, and winter has come to Canberra, let me tell you. And winter in Canberra might be reason enough for the Chiefs to win in Hamilton too, come to think of it.

sure thing
Poor old man Nic Berry is only running the line in Brisbane this weekend, but in the end he will be solely responsible for forward passes in Christchurch, scrum penalties in Dunedin, high tackles in Hamilton and winter in Canberra.

TT-4 Harry Brett Dan Excavator Geoff The crowd
CRU against FOR URC URC URC URC URC URC
RED against BLUE BLUE RED BLUE BLUE BLUE BLUE
HIG vs. WAR STUDENT STUDENT STUDENT STUDENT STUDENT STUDENT
BRU vs. HUR BRU BRU BRU HUR HUR HUR
CHI vs. CER CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI
Last week 5 3 5 4 3 4
Overall 47 37 47 40 43 44

Get your votes now – crowd tips will be revealed on Friday afternoon AEST.

]]>
https://6toros6.com/try-to-stop-the-first-hairy-man/feed/ 0